Typically, black swan events have an “accepted” explanation that is shared across individuals and communities so that it becomes a shared “truth.” Yet, this time, political and social enmity have prevented a shared explanation, further prolonging the current unease and decreasing the likelihood of future resolution. The intersection of these events and ongoing political machinations form a bevy of black swan events, which have created a different landscape for nurses and others who are part of the newly politically charged sector of providers of health care in the United states.Ī key principle of black swan events is destabilization that leads to explanations. In my opinion, from the vantage point of fall 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic was one of several seminal events during the past 18 months: the killings of George Floyd and other Black individuals, the turmoil of a disputed presidential election, and, now, the polarization of the COVID-19 virus, with hostility toward nurses and other healthcare providers from individuals and groups who do not accept the validity of the pandemic. There are three major characteristics of black swan events: First, black swan events are outside the realm of regular expectations second, the events have an extreme impact and third, despite their outlier status, explanations for the occurrence after the fact create a “story,” making the event seem explainable and predictable. The risk can cascade and spread across global systems, with implications for multiple aspects of societal stability. Black swan events are large-scale shocks that can severely challenge economic activity, social cohesion, and, in worst cases, political stability.
Yet, I argue now that there have been multiple black swan events that challenge the future of nursing across multiple nursing roles, including direct patient care, academia, education, and research.
I was in the early learning phase of journal editorship and did not want to sound particularly pessimistic. I put it aside, with input from a trusted editorial colleague, because it sounded alarmist. To date, most solutions for the current crisis in nursing have focused on maximizing the individual-level resilience of nurses while minimizing the responsibilities of the current systems to provide safe, predictable, and morally tolerable work spaces for nurses.Īn early draft of my second editorial in 2020 described the COVID-19 outbreak as a potential “black swan” event (Antipova, 2021 Taleb, 2007). Schools and universities are in session, and focus on the future of nursing is quieted by the demands of the present. The healthcare environment is fundamentally changed, yet our academic and nursing administration structures continue mostly as before. Some nurses have left for higher pay in traveling arrangements and others to escape the current conditions to contemplate different roles in nursing or other careers altogether. Although the data sources are not generalizable, there are multiple reports of RNs leaving the traditional workforce.
In many areas, the number of inpatients and their length of stay represent a pinnacle of the pandemic. There are qualitative and quantitative differences this time. The summer reprieve from COVID-19 was shorter than anticipated, and the upswing in cases and symptomatic illness has stretched the boundaries of our healthcare system once again.